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MOHAMED BIALY ALOLAIMY

 

THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ENERGY SECURITY

 

 THE CASE OF EGYPT

 

 

The 2021 US re-entry into the Paris Climate Agreement has raised again the global debate on climate. This paper analyses the trilateral relation between global warming, energy security (both production and consumption) and population. Following the non-linear regression method, Egypt is studied during the period 2007-2010 based on daily meteorological and electrical- load data and annual population data. The study argues that electricity production contributes to global warming, Population growth also raises the need for electricity production, transportation and cooling systems. Since Egypt is a sub-tropical country, load is almost independent of temperature in warm winter, while temperature affects more than 64 per cent of load variation in summer. One of the solutions is to enhance reliance on relatively clean sources of energy, such as renewable and atomic power.

 

 MOHAMED BIALY ALOLAIMY

 

 

 

   MUTUAL IMPACTS BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY

On the day Joe Biden was sworn in as the President of the United States, he brought his country back into the Paris Agreement. Adopted on12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016, the Agreement is a legally binding international instrument to limit global warming

to well below 2°C preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels, through global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions, and thence achieving a climate- neutral world by the mid-century. (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/ the-paris-agreement) Climate change is caused by global warming, which is mainly attributed to greenhouse gases that trap heat radiated from Earth in the atmosphere and oceans. Those gases include mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), ozone (O3), nitrous oxide (N2O) and water vapour (H2O). Large quantities of these gases are released as a result of deforestation and burning of fossil fuel since the mid 20th  century.  (Parkpoom, S et al, “Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Demand”, In Nouri,  H (Ed), Proceedings of the 39th International Universities Power Engineering Conference, Bristol, UK, September 2004,

 

Section T 14.2) Global warming could cause the rise of sea levels. Electrical power plants emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, particularly when coal is used as a fuel. For example, electricity production generates the second largest share of greenhouse gas emissions in the US (26.9 per cent of 2018 greenhouse gas emissions). Approximately 63 per cent of the US electricity comes from burning fossil fuels, mostly coal and natural gas. (Online at the official website of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources- greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=Electricity per cent20production per cent20(26.9 per cent20per cent per cent20of,mostly per cent20coal per cent20and per cent20 natural per cent20gas)

 

Table 1: Estimation of World’s Population and Economy and Resulting Emissions, Warming and Sea Level Rise

 

Year

World’s Popula- tion (billions)

World’s GDP (1012 US$)

CO2 Level(ppm)

Temperature Change (°C)

Sea Level Rise(m)

1900

5.3

            21

354

0

0

2000

6.1 – 6.2

25 – 28

367

0.2

0.02

2050

8.4 – 11.3

59 – 187

463 – 623

0.8 – 2.6

0.05 – 0.32

2100

7 – 15.1

197 – 550

478 – 1099

1.4 – 5.8

0.09 – 0.88

 

Source: McCarthy, J J et al (Eds), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, 2001, p27.

 


Climate change is no longer an intelligentsia-monopolised topic. The tremendous negative effects of environmental disturbance have disrupted vital aspects of daily life as clearly experienced in the COVID-19 pandemic. These effects increasingly constitute non-traditional security challenges, involving the security sector to directly address them, as witnessed in the curfews, lockdownsand national emergencies to contain the propagation of the pandemic. The securitisation of the climate debate became a fact, essentially with regard to addressing the impact of climate change on energy security and the production of low-or-zero-carbon non-conventional energy like nuclear energy. Nuclear safety and security is an inherent component of nuclear power programmes to avoid unauthorized  access to nuclear materials which could lead to incidents of nuclear theft, sabotage and/or terrorism, and to avoid nuclear disasters as experienced in Chernobyl and Fukushima. In addition are the associated concerns of using nuclear power for military perposes.